A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.



Weekly Leading Index Ticks Down

A weekly gauge of future U.S. economic growth ticked down in the latest week... while its annualized growth rate was unchanged, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index (WLI) slipped to 140.9 in the week ended Sept. 28 from 141.0 in the prior week, originally reported at 141.1.

The annualized growth rate in the index was unchanged at 0.9 percent. The prior week's figure was reported initially at 1.0 percent.

"With WLI growth having stabilized since early September, there are growing indications that a recession will remain at bay," said Melinda Hubman, research associate at ECRI.