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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Weekly Leading Index Slips


A gauge of future U.S. economic growth slipped last week... and the measure's annualized growth rate fell to a 16-week low, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, an independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index (WLI) eased to 141.8 in the week ended Aug. 10 from 141.9 in the prior week, revised from 142.

The annualized growth rate in the index declined to 4.2 percent from a revised 5.1 percent in prior week. It was originally reported at 5.2 percent.

"While a pullback in WLI growth to a sixteen-week low indicated a slight dulling in U.S. economic growth prospects, this is far from a recessionary downturn, and the economy remains resilient in the near term," said Melinda Hubman, research associate at ECRI.