A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.



Weekly Leading Index Slips Further

The pace of U.S. economic growth slipped in the latest week to its lowest level since April of last year, underscoring signs of a slowdown on the horizon, a report said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, an independent forecasting group, said its weekly leading index fell to 131.2 in the week ended July 16 compared with a reading of 131.5 in the previous week...

The index's annualized growth rate, which smooths out weekly fluctuations, edged further down to 1.1 percent from 1.6 percent in the previous period. The growth rate hit its lowest level since the week of April 18 last year.

"This reinforces earlier signs of a broad-based slowdown," the group's managing director Lakshman Achuthan told Reuters. "Meanwhile, underlying inflation pressures remain on an uptrend," he added.