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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Weekly Leading Index Slips


A reading of U.S. economic growth remained flat in the latest week, with the latest reading coming in at its lowest level since March 2003, a report said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, an independent forecasting group, said its weekly leading index (WLI) slipped to 131.5 in the week ended Aug. 6 compared with a reading of 131.9 in the previous week.

The index's annualized growth rate, which smoothes out weekly fluctuations, remained unchanged, down from 0.1 percent in the previous period.

"The story is unchanged," said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director of ECRI. "The slowdown that the WLI anticipated is set to persist through the end of the year." ...