A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.



Weekly Leading Index Slips

The U.S. economy will skirt a return to recession as long as sagging business confidence does not push employers to embark on a new round of corporate layoffs, the Economic Cycle Research Institute said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute's weekly gauge of U.S. economic activity inched up to 118.2 in the week ended Oct. 4 from 118.0 in the prior week.

But its growth rate, which smooths out weekly fluctuations, fell to -2.1 percent from -1.2 percent in the preceding week.

The Weekly Leading Index is composed of a balance of seven major economic indicators. ECRI designs short- and long-term indexes aimed at predicting business cycles, recessions and recoveries in the world's leading economies.