A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.



Weekly Leading Index Slips

A gauge of future U.S. economic growth and its annualized growth rate fell in the latest week, erasing hopes that a recovery in the economy is close at hand, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index slipped to 131.7 in the week to June 20 from 132.6 in the previous period...

The index's annualized growth rate edged down to negative 6.0 percent from minus 5.8 percent a week earlier.

"The Weekly Leading Index fell for the fifth time in six weeks, while its growth rate dipped to a five-week low," Achuthan said. "Despite hopes for an imminent recovery, the WLI remains in recession territory."