A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.



Weekly Leading Index Slips

A weekly gauge of future U.S. economic growth slipped in the latest week... and its annualized growth rate declined, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index (WLI) slipped to 139.9 in the week ended Oct. 12 from a revised 140.4 in the prior week, originally reported at 141.5.

The annualized growth rate in the index slipped to a negative 0.4 percent from a negative 0.3 percent in the prior week.

The prior week's figure was initially reported as a 1 percent increase. ECRI Managing Director Lakshman Achuthan said a major factor in the revision stemmed from ECRI's analysis of revised Federal Reserve data which indicated slower growth in the money supply.

ECRI analyst Hubman said: "With WLI (annualized) growth now hovering near one-year low, a broad-based slowdown in U.S. economic growth is likely but a recession is not."