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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Weekly Leading Index Slips


...The Economic Cycle Research Institute, an independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index fell to 135.6 in the week ended Sept. 15 from a downwardly revised 136.5 in the prior week.

"Despite modest recovery in the past four weeks, WLI growth remains restrained pointing to slower U.S. economic growth in coming months," said Lakshman Achuthan, a managing director at ECRI...

This kind of pervasive cyclical slowdown in the economy will challenge growth in profits, he added.

Annualized growth in the week ended Sept. 15 edged up to minus 0.8 percent from an unrevised minus 0.9 percent in the prior period. This growth is calculated from a four-week moving average, so on occasion the level and growth go in different directions.