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During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Weekly Leading Index Slips


A gauge of future U.S. economic growth fell in the latest week... and the measure's growth rate was down almost 1 percent, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, an independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index (WLI) fell to 142.0 in the week ended Aug. 3 from 142.4 in the prior week, revised from 142.5.

On an annualized basis, the WLI growth rate slowed to 5.2 percent from 6.1 percent in the prior week.

"Although WLI growth has recently eased somewhat, it remains relatively close to its earlier highs, indicating a moderately positive economic growth outlook," said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director at ECRI.
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