A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.



Weekly Leading Index Rose Slightly

A weekly gauge of future U.S. growth rose slightly, as did its annualized growth rate -- but the rate remained near a six-year low, underscoring the economy's vulnerability, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index (WLI) rose to 137.4 in the week of Jan. 11 from 136.2 in the prior week, revised downward from 136.6.

The weekly index's annualized growth rate rose to minus 6.5 percent from minus 7.1 percent, which was a six-year low.

"Despite its latest uptick, WLI growth remains near its worst readings since the 2001 recession, underscoring the economy's heightened vulnerability," Achuthan said.