A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.



Weekly Leading Index Rises Slightly

A weekly gauge of future U.S. economic growth rose slightly... but its annualized growth rate continued to fall and is now at a more than six-year low, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index inched up to 135.1 in the week of Dec. 28 from 135.0 in the prior week, revised from 135.2.

WLI annualized growth rate fell to minus 6.2 percent from minus 5.2 percent. It was last that low on Nov. 16, 2001, when it hit negative 7.1 percent according to ECRI data.

"WLI growth is now at its worst reading since the 2001 recession. However, the WLI's recent decline is not based on pervasive weakness among its components, suggesting that a recession could still be averted," Achuthan said.