A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.



Weekly Leading Index Rises Slightly

A weekly gauge of future U.S. economic growth rose slightly... but its annualized growth rate fell to a low not seen since the 2001 recession, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 136.6 in the week of Jan. 4 from 135.1 the prior week.

WLI annualized growth rate fell to minus 6.7 percent from minus 6.3 percent, revised down from minus 6.2 percent. It was last that low on Nov. 16, 2001, when it hit negative 7.6 percent according to revised ECRI data.

"WLI growth has now dropped to a new six-year low. Even so, it is still possible for prompt policy action to help avert a recession," Hubman said.