A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.



Weekly Leading Index Rises

A gauge of future U.S. economic growth and its annualized growth rate rose in the latest week, but the latter is still deep into negative territory indicating a recession is at hand, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 132.5 in the week to July 4 from 131.2 in the previous period...

The index's annualized growth rate edged up to negative 6.1 percent from minus 6.3 percent.

"Despite the latest uptick, WLI growth remains deep in negative territory and the economic outlook continues to be recessionary," Hubman said.