A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.



Weekly Leading Index Rises

A gauge of future U.S. economic growth and its annualized growth rate both rose in the latest week but this does not mean the economy is escaping a recession, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index edged up to 132.0 in the week to April 11 from 131.9 in the prior week.

"Despite its two-week uptick, the WLI is still in recession territory," said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director at ECRI...

The index's annualized growth rate edged up to minus 10.2 percent from minus 10.9 percent, which was its lowest since October 2001.