A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.



Weekly Leading Index Rises

A gauge of future U.S. economic growth rose in the latest week... although the annualized rate of growth slipped, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, an independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index climbed to 139.3 in the week ending Feb. 16 from 138.9 in the prior week.

The annualized growth rate inched down to 3.4 percent from 3.5 percent in the previous period.

"Even though WLI growth has now eased to a nine-week low it remains comfortably above last summer's readings, indicating that the U.S. growth outlook is positive," said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director at ECRI.

The rise in the index was partly offset...Achuthan said.

Occasionally the WLI level and growth rate can move in different directions, because the latter is derived from a four-week moving average.