A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.



Weekly Leading Index Rises

A gauge of future U.S. economic growth rose in the latest week, a report showed on Friday, while its annualized growth rate edged up.

ECRI said its weekly leading index rose to 136.6 in the week ended Sept. 8 from an upwardly revised 135.7 in the prior week.

Annualized growth in the week ended Sept. 8 edged up to minus 0.9 percent from an upwardly revised minus 1.3 percent in the prior period.

"With weekly leading index growth staying subdued, the U.S. economic growth is likely to follow suit," said Lakshman Achuthan, a managing director at the Economic Cycle Research Institute, an independent forecasting group...

Although the annualized growth has been steadily moving up since mid August when it reached minus 1.6 percent, Achuthan said it is not forecasting a revival in growth at this time.