A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.



Weekly Leading Index Rises

A gauge of U.S. economic growth rose in the latest week..., a report said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, an independent forecasting group, said its weekly leading index edged up to 138.3 in the week ended Jan. 20 from an upwardly revised 137.8 in the prior week, initially reported as 137.7.

The annualized growth rate of the index rose to 3.8 percent in the latest week, compared with a downwardly revised 2.7 percent in the prior week. That rate was originally reported at 2.9 percent. The growth rate has reached a 20-month high.

"Despite a drop in gross domestic product growth in the fourth quarter the weekly leading index affirms that no recession is imminent," said Anirvan Banerji, director of research of ECRI.

"U.S. economic growth prospects have actually improved a little in recent weeks," Banerji said.