A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.



Weekly Leading Index Rises

A leading index of the U.S. economy rose in the latest week...

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, an independent forecasting group, said its weekly leading index (WLI) rose to to 134.4 in the week ended Feb. 4 compared with 133.7 in the previous week.

The current index level is the highest since the week of May 7, 2004, a 40-week high.

The index's annualized growth rate, which smoothes out weekly fluctuations, rose to 1.6 percent from 0.3 percent in the prior week after falling a bit last month.

"Its January dip notwithstanding, the weekly leading index growth rate is on the recovery track, which bodes well for economic growth later in the year," said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director of ECRI.