A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.



Weekly Leading Index Rises

A weekly gauge of U.S. economic activity rose last week, lending support to the view that while the economy may be growing at a snail's pace, it is unlikely to fall victim to a renewed recession.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute said on Friday its weekly measure of U.S. economic health grew to 118.9 in the week ended Oct. 18 from 116.5 in the previous week.

"That's consistent with the view that there is no new recession imminent," said Lakshman Achuthan, ECRI managing director.

However, the index's growth rate, which smooths out weekly fluctuations, inched lower to -3.5 percent from -3.3 percent in the preceding week.

The Weekly Leading Index is composed of a balance of seven major economic indicators. ECRI designs short- and long-term indexes aimed at predicting business cycles, recessions and recoveries in the world's leading economies.