A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.



Weekly Leading Index Lowest in 5 Years

A gauge of future U.S. economic growth fell to its lowest level in more than five years and its annualized growth rate hit a four-month low, indicating the business cycle is not expected to enter a recovery phase in the near term, a research group said Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index fell to 126.4 in the week to Aug. 8 from 126.9 in the previous period, revised down from 127.5...

The index's annualized growth rate plunged to an 18-week low to negative 10.8 percent from minus 9.6 percent, revised down from minus 8.9 percent.

"With the WLI plunging over the last five weeks to a new five-year low, the likelihood of a near-term business cycle recovery has dwindled markedly," Achuthan wrote.