A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.



Weekly Leading Index Higher

A gauge of future U.S. economic growth and its annualized growth rate were both slightly higher in the latest week but still point to recession, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 131.9 in the week to April 4 from 129.8 in the prior week, revised down from 129.9...

The index's annualized growth rate edged up to minus 10.7 percent from minus 10.8 percent, the lowest since October 2001.

"Despite the latest uptick, the WLI remains in a recessionary downturn," said Hubman.