A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.



Weekly Leading Index Flat

A gauge of future U.S. economic growth was unchanged in the latest week, a report showed on Friday, with its annualized growth rate also flat.

Annualized growth in the week ended Aug. 25 held steady at negative 1.7 percent, according to the Economic Cycle Research Institute, an independent forecasting group. The prior week's growth rate was revised downward from negative 1.6 percent.

But the flatness of the annualized growth "doesn't override or reverse the downward momentum that we've seen" recently, said Lakshman Achuthan, a managing director at ECRI...

ECRI said its weekly leading index was flat at 135.1 in the week ended Aug. 25 from a downwardly revised 135.1 in the prior week. It was originally pegged at 135.2.

"With weekly leading index growth in a clear cyclical downswing, U.S. economic growth prospects remain dull," Achuthan said.