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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Weekly Leading Index Falls


A gauge of future U.S. economic growth fell last week... and its annualized growth rate slowed to a 37-week low, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, an independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index (WLI) slipped to 139.8 in the week ended Aug. 17 from 141.7, downwardly revised from an earlier-reported 141.8.

The annualized weekly growth rate in the index slowed to 2.6 percent from 4.1 percent in the prior week, revised from 4.2 percent.

"This week's sharp drop in WLI growth indicates a dimmer economic growth outlook, but not a recessionary tailspin," said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director of ECRI.