A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.



Weekly Leading Index Falls

The rate of U.S. economic growth in the latest week resumed its summer swoon, falling to a 15-month low, due to signs of a broad slowing in the economy, a report said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, an independent forecasting group, said its weekly leading index fell to 131.5 in the week ended July 9 compared with a downwardly revised reading of 133.4 in the previous week...

The index's annualized growth rate, which smooths out weekly fluctuations, resumed its descent, falling to 1.6 percent from 2.3 percent in the previous period. The growth rate stands at its lowest level since the week of April 25, 2003.

"Despite the optimism of a rebound, this index is telling us that the current deceleration is likely to continue," the group's managing director Lakshman Achuthan told Reuters.