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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Weekly Leading Index Falls


A gauge of future U.S. economic growth and its annualized growth rate were both lower in the latest week, with the latter at a two-month low and still indicating the economy is facing a recession, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index fell to 131.2 in the week to July 11 from 132.3 in the previous period, downwardly revised from 132.5....

The index's annualized growth rate slipped to negative 6.4 percent -- its lowest since minus 6.5 in the week to May 16 -- from minus 6.3 percent in the previous week, revised down from minus 6.1 percent.

"The slide in the already negative WLI growth to an eight-week low affirms its recessionary standing," Hubman said.