A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.



Weekly Leading Index Falls

A gauge of future U.S. economic growth fell in the latest week and its annualized growth rate also hit a 23-week low, indicating recession is the most important problem facing the economy, a research group said on Thursday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index slipped to 131.2 in the week to June 27 from 131.6 in the previous period, downwardly revised from 131.7...

The index's annualized growth rate fell to negative 6.3 percent from minus 6.0 percent.

"The decline in WLI growth to a 23-week low underscores the reality that recession is the immediate problem at hand," Achuthan said.