A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.



Weekly Leading Index Falls

A gauge of future U.S. economic growth fell in the latest week and its annualized growth rate, deep in negative territory, shows the economy is still facing a recession, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index slipped to 132.6 in the week to June 13 from 132.9 in the previous period, upwardly revised from 132.5...

The index's annualized growth rate was unchanged at negative 5.8 percent, but the prior week's figure was revised up from negative 6.2 percent

"The Weekly Leading Index fell for the fourth time in five weeks, and its smoothed growth rate, while unchanged, stayed solidly negative," Achuthan said. "The unambiguous message is that the economy has not veered away from the recession track."