A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.



Weekly Leading Index Falls

A gauge of future U.S. economic growth and its annualized growth rate were lower in the latest week, evidence that the downturn in the U.S. economy shows no sign of abating, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index fell to 129.9 in the week to March 28 from 131.7 in the prior week, downwardly revised from 131.8...

The index's annualized growth rate slid to minus 10.7 percent from minus 10.0 percent. This reading hit the same low in mid-February, and is at its lowest since October 2001.

"With the WLI continuing its slide and WLI growth back at its cycle low, an end to the recession is nowhere in sight" said Achuthan.