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A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Weekly Leading Index Falls


A weekly gauge of future U.S. economic growth fell slightly and though its annualized growth rate rose, immediate economic stimulus is needed to dodge the recession bullet, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index (WLI) fell to 135.8 in the week of Jan. 18 from 137.4 in the prior week...

The weekly index's annualized growth rate rose to minus 6.0 percent from minus 6.5 percent.

"Notwithstanding its recent uptick, WLI growth remains in the danger zone," Achuthan said.

"This highlights the importance of immediate economic stimulus to help avert a recession, as opposed to stimulus taking effect months down the road."