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During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Weekly Leading Index Falls


A gauge of future U.S. economic growth fell in the latest week... and its annualized growth rate was also down, a research group said on Friday.


The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index slipped to 139.7 in the week ended Oct. 19 from a revised 140.1 in the prior week, originally reported at 139.9.


The annualized growth rate in the index slipped to negative 0.5 percent from negative 0.3 percent in the previous week, revised up from negative 0.4.


"After plunging in August, WLI growth has flattened out, suggesting that while economic growth will indeed slow, a recession is not likely." Achuthan said.