A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.



Weekly Leading Index Falls

The "sub-par recovery" in the U.S. economy is weakening, but there is still no sign of a renewed or double-dip recession, said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director of the Economic Cycle Research Institute.

The ECRI's weekly leading indicators grew 0.5% in the latest week, the weakest peformance since December. Achuthan said the index is reflecting a "tug of war" between the positives of monetary and fiscal policy and the negatives of business and investor sentiment. He said business investment is still being dragged by consumers. "It'll take a few more months," he said. "We need to have conviction that the consumer will not disappear."