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During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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Weekly Leading Index Falls


A gauge of future U.S. economic growth fell in the latest week... while the measure's annualized growth rate also fell, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, an independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index fell to 142.5 in the week ended July 27 from 143.6 in the prior week, revised from 143.7.

WLI's annualized growth rate fell to 6.1 percent from 6.4 percent in the prior week.

"Despite the fears roiling the markets, WLI growth remains at the low end of a tight band it has inhabited for 12 weeks, underscoring the cyclical resilience of the U.S. expansion," said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director at ECRI.

The fall in the index was partly offset by lower interest rates, Achuthan said.