A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.



Weekly Leading Index Edges Up

A gauge of future U.S. economic growth and its annualized growth rate both edged up in the latest week but they still point to a U.S. economy in recession, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index edged up to 132.1 in the week to April 18 from 132 the prior week...

The index's annualized growth rate remained negative, but improved to minus 9.7 percent from minus 10.2 percent. It's the highest since minus 8.8 percent in the week ended Feb. 1.

"WLI growth has recovered to an 11-week high, but remains deep in recession territory, therefore it is premature to forecast a business cycle recovery." Achuthan said.