A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.



Weekly Leading Index Edges Up

A gauge of future U.S. economic growth edged up in the latest week... with its growth index at a 51-week high, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, an independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index rose to 140.2 in the week ending Jan. 26 from 139.2 in the prior week.

The annualized growth rate was up to 4.7 percent from 4.5 percent in the previous period.

"The steady advance in WLI growth since last summer underscores the improbability of a recession this year," said Melinda Hubman, research associate at ECRI. "Notably, this uptrend was already in place two months ago, when there were wide-spread expectations of economic weakness and multiple Fed rate cuts."

The rise in the WLI was partially offset by higher interest rates, Hubman said.