A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.



Weekly Leading Index Edges Up

A gauge of future U.S. economic growth was higher in the latest week... a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, an independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index edged up to 139.0 in the week ending Dec. 29 from 138.5 in the prior week.

Annualized growth rate was down to 3.7 percent from 3.8 percent in the previous period.

"Despite its slight dip, WLI growth remains near a 44-week high, affirming that us economic growth prospects have improved since the summer," said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director at ECRI.

The increase in the overall index was partly offset... Achuthan said.

Occasionally the index and the growth rate can move in different directions because the latter is derived from a four-week moving average.