A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.



Weekly Leading Index Edges Up

...A leading index of the U.S. economy inch[ed] up, a report said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, an independent forecasting group, said its weekly leading index (WLI) crawled up to 131.7 in the week ended Aug. 13 compared with a downwardly revised reading of 131.4 in the previous week.

The index's annualized growth rate, which smoothes out weekly fluctuations, rose marginally to 0.0 percent, from -0.1 percent in the previous period.

"Back in the spring the WLI gave us early warning of the slowdown that we are now in, and despite the general eagerness to declare that the soft patch is behind, the return to robust growth is nowhere in sight," said Anirvan Banerji, director of research.