A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.



Weekly Leading Index Edges Up

A gauge of future U.S. economic growth edged higher in the latest week, a report showed on Friday, while its annualized growth rate strengthened marginally but still remained in negative territory.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute said its weekly leading index rose to 135.5 in the week ended Sept. 1 from 135.1 the prior week.

Annualized growth in the week inched up to negative 1.5 percent from negative 1.7 percent after falling steadily below zero since late July.

"With weekly leading index growth still in a cyclical downtrend the U.S. economic growth outlook remains glum," said Lakshman Achuthan, a managing director at ECRI, an independent forecasting group...

Although the growth rate rose in the latest week, it is premature to say it is a directional change in the index, Achuthan said.