A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.



Weekly Leading Index Edges Up

An index of the U.S. economy edged up in the latest week... a report showed on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, an independent forecasting group, said its weekly leading index (WLI) rose to 135.7 in the week to May 7 from a downwardly revised 135.5 in the preceding week.

The index's annualized growth rate, a four-week moving average that smooths out weekly fluctuations, increased to 8.9 percent from 8.7 percent in the previous period.

The latest figure was the fifth straight week of single-digit growth, suggesting, while the economy still appears healthy, the expansion could moderate.

"This is a shift from an acceleration phase in the U.S. economic recovery to a deceleration phase," Anirvan Banerji, ECRI's director of research, told Reuters.