A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.



Weekly Leading Index Edges Lower

A gauge of future U.S. economic growth edged lower in the latest week and its annualized growth rate slipped deeper into recessionary territory, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index inched down to 132.4 in the week to May 30 from 132.8 in the prior period...

The index's annualized growth rate fell to negative 6.2 percent, from minus 6.0 percent, which was its highest level since the week of Dec. 21.

"With the WLI falling for the fourth straight week, its smoothed growth rate slipped from the 22-week high. Thus, U.S. growth prospects remain gloomy," Hubman said.