A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.



Weekly Leading Index Edges Higher

NEW YORK, Oct 12 (Reuters) - A weekly gauge of future U.S. economic growth was higher in the latest week... and its annualized growth rate rose to a six-week high, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index (WLI) edged up to 141.5 in the week ended Oct. 5 from 140.8 in the prior week, originally reported at 140.9...

The annualized growth rate in the index was 1.0 percent, up from the prior week's 0.9 percent figure.

"Despite persistent recession fears, with WLI growth up to a six-week high it is increasingly unlikely that the economy will enter a recession any time soon," said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director at ECRI.