A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.



Weekly Leading Index Edges Down

...A [leading] gauge of the U.S. economy [eased] in the latest week, a report said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, an independent forecasting group, said its weekly leading index eased to 135.1 in the week ended Sept. 30 compared with a revised 135.5 in the prior week.

The index's annualized growth rate also eased to 1.8 percent from a revised 2.1 percent.

This is the fifth reading of the weekly leading index since Hurricane Katrina hit the U.S. Gulf Coast on Aug. 29.

"With five weeks of post-Katrina data in hand, it is clear that growth will ease in the near term but that no recession is in sight," said Lakshman Achuthan, managing director of ECRI.