A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.



Weekly Leading Index Edges Down

Rising interest rates and jobless claims pushed a leading index of the U.S. economy slightly lower last week..., a report showed on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, an independent forecasting group, said its weekly leading index edged down to 135.6 in the week to Aug. 12 from an upwardly revised 135.7 in the prior week.

The index's annualized growth rate, which smooths out weekly fluctuations, rose to an 18-week high of 3.0 percent. The rate for the prior week was revised up to 2.7 percent from 2.6 percent.

"With the weekly leading index growth improving, overall U.S. economic prospects are firming in general," Lakshman Achuthan, managing director at ECRI, adding that the potential for growth in the service sector is becoming notably brighter.