A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.



Weekly Leading Index at 9 Month Low

A weekly gauge of future U.S. economic growth reached its lowest mark since December 2005, a report showed on Friday, and its annualized growth rate was also down.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, an independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index fell to 135.1 in the week ended Sept. 22 from a downwardly revised 135.5 in the prior week, matching its lowest level since Dec. 23, 2005. The highest mark during that period was 138.6, in the week of Jan. 20.

"With the Weekly Leading Index at a 9-month low, the hoped for revival in U.S. growth is not in clear sight," said Lakshman Achuthan, a managing director at ECRI...

Annualized growth in the week ended Sept. 22 slipped to minus 0.9 percent from minus 0.8 percent in the prior period.