A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.



USFIG at 18-Month High

A monthly measure of U.S. inflation pressures rose to an 18-month high in March, reflecting a broad price increase in the month, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute's U.S. Future Inflation Gauge (USFIG), designed to anticipate cyclical swings in the rate of inflation, rose to 102.1 in March from a revised 99.4 in February, which was originally reported at 101.4.

The inflation barometer resumed its trend higher in March after falling for the first time in 11 months in February.

"With the USFIG at an 18-month high, underlying inflation pressures remain in a cyclical uptrend," ECRI Managing Director Lakshman Achuthan said in a statement. "The gauge was pushed up in March by inflationary moves in almost all components."

The March USFIG annualized growth rate, which smooths out monthly fluctuations, rose to 28.9 percent from a revised 26.9 percent. The February figure was originally reported at 31.3 percent.