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During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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US Recovery to Gain Strength Through New Year


The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index slipped to 127.9 in the week to October 16 from 128.1 in the the previous week.

"Despite a dip, WLI growth remains close to the previous week's record high, suggesting that the U.S. economic recovery will continue to gain strength through the New Year," said ECRI Managing Director Lakshman Achuthan.

The index's yearly growth rate fell to 27.2 percent from the previous week's revised 27.8 percent, which was originally reported at 27.9 percent.

The index has shown annualized economic growth at record highs since September. That's a turnaround from earlier this year, when the growth rate was sharply negative.
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