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During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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US Recovery Poised to Trounce Any Obstacles


A weekly index of future U.S.economic growth edged down in the latest week, but its yearly growth rate rose to a new record high that further suggests signs of a tapering recession, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute, a New York-based independent forecasting group, said its Weekly Leading Index slipped to 128.1 in the week to Oct. 9 from an upwardly revised 129.1 the previous week, which was originally reported as 128.3.

But the index's yearly growth rate climbed to a fresh all-time high of 27.9 percent from 27.4 percent the prior week, which was revised higher from an original 26.1 percent.

The group's data has posted annualized economic growth at record high rates since September. Earlier this year, the growth rate was struggling to dig itself out of deeply negative territory.

"Such a pronounced, pervasive and persistent upswing in the WLI and its components assures that this economic recovery can overcome any obstacles in the months ahead," said ECRI Managing Director Lakshman Achuthan.

The report's yearly growth gains are in step with U.S. industrial production figures released earlier on Friday that suggest the third quarter closed out with surprisingly strong economic growth.

"IP numbers are very much in line with our April forecast that recession would end over the summer," said Achuthan, who has said chances of a double-dip recession are highly unlikely.

This week's index dipped largely due to weaker housing activity, Achuthan said. The growth rate is derived from a four-week moving average, and occasionally moves inversely to the weekly index level.
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