A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.



US Inflation Pressures Hit Fresh 50-Year Low

U.S. inflation pressures fell in January to a 50-year low as consumer prices face downward pressure, a research group said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute's U.S. Future Inflation Gauge (USFIG), designed to anticipate cyclical swings in the rate of inflation, slipped to 81.8 in January from 84.5 in December, which was revised from 85.5.

The reading was the lowest since Aug. 1958, when it stood at 85.3.

"With the USFIG locked in a clear cyclical downswing, U.S. inflation pressures are essentially non-existent. Rather, there are continued downward pressures on U.S. consumer prices," said Melinda Hubman, research associate at ECRI...

The USFIG annualized growth rate, which smooths out monthly fluctuations, fell in January to minus 38.8 percent from minus 37.9 percent in December.