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During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.

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US Future Inflation Gauge at 4-Yr Low


U.S. inflation pressures ebbed to a four-year low in February..., a U.S. economic research institute said on Friday.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute's U.S. Future Inflation Gauge (USFIG), designed to anticipate cyclical swings in the rate of inflation, fell to 115.9 in February, its lowest since January 2004 when it was 115.0, according to ECRI data.

"With the USFIG dropping to a four-year low, it is clear that the widespread worries about an uptrend in U.S. inflation pressures are not warranted," said Melinda Hubman, research associate at ECRI...

The FIG's annualized growth rate, which smooths out monthly fluctuations, fell to minus 5.4 percent in February from minus 3.1 percent in January, revised from negative 3.0 percent.

ECRI also revised the January reading in the USFIG index to 117.7 from an initially reported 117.9.