A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.



UK inflation pressures edge up slightly

Inflationary pressure edged up in November, data from the Economic Cycle Research Institute showed on Friday.

New York-based economic forecaster ECRI said its United Kingdom Future Inflation Gauge (UKFIG) rose to 103.5 in November from 103.4 in October after hitting a nine-month low in September.

"Despite a marginal uptick, the UKFIG remains close to September's nine-month low. Thus, UK inflation pressures are still relatively subdued," said Lakshman Achuthan at ECRI.

Inflation rose to a six-month high in November, extending a run of upside surprises with annual CPI rising to 3.3 percent from October's 3.2 percent, marking the 11th consecutive month it has been at least a percentage point above the Bank of England's 2 percent target.

Although economists expect inflation to average 3.0 percent this year, they do not expect the Bank to raise its key rate until at least October, Reuters polls show.