A Framework That Provides Clarity

During periods of “low visibility,” confusion reigns: for every indication of one trend, there seems to be a countertrend. The key is to glean from the collective wisdom of reliable leading indicators a clear signal that the economy is headed for a turn.



U.S. WLI Inches Lower

A weekly indicator of U.S. economic activity pushed modestly lower last week but the index still suggests the recovery is well under way, a report on Friday showed.

The Economic Cycle Research Institute's Weekly Leading Index inched lower, to 121.1 in the week ended April 12 from 121.4 in the prior week.

"The index is hanging in there well enough and that's underscoring the durability of this recovery," said ECRI Research Director Anirvan Banerji.

The index's growth rate -- which compares the four-week moving average with its behavior over the preceding year -- edged lower for the second straight week, to 4.3 percent from 4.8 percent.

The Weekly Leading Index is composed of a balance of seven major economic indicators. ECRI designs short- and long-term indexes aimed at predicting business cycles, recessions and recoveries in the world's leading economies.